Wake up Europe – The Iran nuclear agreement was dodgy

The 2015 atomic agreement strengthened the Iranian regime and enabled it to be even more aggressive. Financially it filled Tehran‘s war chest and gave Iran time to pursue its nuclear and missile ambitions. Israel from the onset said this to the Obama administration. Now the Trump administration has reached the same conclusion and taken action. The Europeans are more outraged than the Iranians. The pointed foreign policy recommendation from this is that if in doubt, ask the Europeans and then do the opposite of what they say.

Rather than striving to show that they are right and Israel and America are wrong Iran immediately demonstrated its bitter hostility to Israel when over 30 rockets were fired from Syria into Israel. The message that they wish to convey is that apparently Iran is the victim of America and Israel. Any logical person would have no difficulty in immediately stating that an act of violence, firing missiles, is not a sane response to the termination of an agreement where the target state Israel was not even a signature to the agreement.

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This is especially since the agreement has solved no problems, rather it granted Iran time and extra funds to add and to consolidate without giving up its nuclear weapons program. I will turn to details of the agreement to show how weak it was. The number of centrifuges was to have been reduced to just over 6000, uranium enrichment was to have been limited to 3.67 percent for 15 years, and the stock of low-enriched uranium to remain frozen at 300 kilograms. Any expert would tell you that the Breakout timeline, ie the time it would take the Iranian military to produce enough material for a bomb, would be no more than a year.

So the agreement could never have stopped Iran‘s nuclear ambitions and its armament, rather it paved the way for the regime to build it without hindrance. Apart from that the agreement was not capable of stopping Iran from continuing to manufacture and test missiles capable of striking Israel and Europe. The agreement had no clause to limit, curtail or reduce Iranian aggressive foreign policy, which is aimed at a constant expansion of its power

For example in Syria there are 80,000 Iranian militia while Lebanon is de facto under Iranian control. Iran wants to carry the Islamic Revolution to Latin America and Africa. It also has a presence in dozens of Middle East and Gulf countries with military and advisers and is conducting a proxy war in Yemen, where the civil war can at any time extend to a regional war. Iran supports the Taliban, Hezbollah and Hamas and is the largest terrorist financier in the world.

The exit from the atomic agreement is an opportunity. Why can’t European states see this! Why can’t European states realise that Iran‘s hegemonic activities and ambitions in the Middle East are not only a threat to Israel, which is why Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have welcomed the American move. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain even expressly supported Israel‘s right to self-defense against Iran. European states are not saying the same. Europeans must take the opportunity to rethink their Iran policy and realign it in consultation with the US. However, one may doubt that they will take this opportunity. We live in interesting times!

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